China Morning Missive There seems to be a new term flying around the social media universe. “Escalation dominance”. Basically, it’s just a fancy way of saying China has far greater negotiating leverage as compared to the United States. Well, this bilateral imbalance has been at the core of the Notes I’ve been putting out for the past six months. My very succinct summary is this. China produces everything and America produces nothing. I’m not here to beat on America and China is most certainly working through its own issues. When you step back though and look at both parties on a net-net basis there is no other conclusion to draw than that of trade terms being dictated by China. Here is the best real-world example that I can give. To start, the current imbalance is the result of a three-decade period where multinational groups aggressively outsourced production to China. You hear this all the time. China hollowed out middle America. What doesn’t seem to get enough attention is that this entire imbalance was loudly telegraphed back in 2018 during Trump 1.0 and yet no corrective action was taken at that time. Just consider Apple as one example. Tim Cook knew at the time the precarious nature of Apple’s manufacturing dependence on China. Did he decided to marshal the company’s ample cash hoard and take aggressive steps to diversify away from China? Of course he didn’t. Such action would have tanked the stock. All that Time Cook did was accelerate the company’s share buyback program. For those who may doubt, I am a Red-Blooded American. There is, however, a reality that cannot be ignored. Like it or not, a very deep hole has been dug, and the first order of business is to stop digging. This then means that a collaborative relationship with China is the only option …. for now. A system based on financialization must shift aggressively to one centered on reindustrialization. It’ll take time, but as the old Chinese adage goes, “The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is today.” https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/12/china-defiance-trump-100-tariff-00605499

Going offline for a week. Priorities. Family. Granddaughters first birthday.

You are really doing this??!! Outstanding.

My man!!! nostr:npub1r0rs5q2gk0e3dk3nlc7gnu378ec6cnlenqp8a3cjhyzu6f8k5sgs4sq9ac

The US cannot win the trade war with #China. Walmart pulling forward guidance tells you everything you need to know. Price hikes on all things out of China are being passed on to either the American buyer (Walmart) or the American consumer. And I’ll also repeat again. China hasn’t even begun playing hardball. Export controls will be the point when that changes.

Agreed and yet first targeting USAID makes for a very useful test case for just how rabid the resistance would be and, more importantly, the mode taken to thwart the EOs by that resistance.

Very true. By the way, sent you a DM. Have a look when you can.

Well this escalated quickly. Open source for the win.

This has been making the rounds. Jokes aside ….. he’s not wrong. The guys who built DeepSeek did it as a side project for their quant fund. Nvidia and all those associated to the closed source OpenAI are looking to have a very rough week ahead in the markets. Also, no relation with “goodalexander”